AI Solar Generation Forecasting for Plants and QCAs
Solar generation forecasting for plants and the QCAs that schedule them. Day-ahead, intraday and week-ahead, delivered as a solar forecasting API, a solar forecasting dashboard, and the scheduling file your desk already sends.
Free 30-day forecast accuracy pilot on your plant. The report scores the error on your time blocks.
Generation forecast
Forecast, confidence band, and actual
Week-ahead
Planning
Day-ahead
Filed schedule
Intraday
Revisions
DSM deviation band
Inside bandSettlement applies when generation leaves the band. The rate depends on the state.
Forecast inputs
Why Accuracy Matters Under DSM and Deviation Settlement
Wind and solar generators in India have to forecast and schedule the power they inject. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) set that obligation. In most states a Qualified Coordinating Agency (QCA) pools generators and submits the schedule to the State Load Despatch Centre (SLDC).
Deviation settlement (DSM) compares scheduled energy with the energy injected in each time block. Charges apply when generation leaves the allowed band. The rate depends on the state, the block and the size of the miss, so this page quotes no penalty figure.
A solar energy forecasting system is doing its job when the filed number tracks the weather and the plant, and a revision still gets in before the gate closes. We measure that error on your plant during a pilot. See the Energy and Utilities page for the wider practice.
From forecast to settlement
CERC requires wind and solar forecasting and scheduling
A QCA often submits the schedule to the SLDC
DSM compares scheduled and actual energy in each time block
Settlement applies outside the allowed band, at rates set by the state
Day-Ahead, Intraday and Week-Ahead Forecasts
Solar production forecasting follows how a schedule is used. All three horizons come from one solar energy forecasting system. The solar forecasting dashboard shows the filed schedule, the latest revision, and what the plant generated.
Day-ahead forecast
The next operating day, in the time blocks your state uses. This is the file a plant desk or a QCA usually submits to the SLDC.
Intraday forecast
An update through the day, timed to the revision gate your rules still accept. A newer weather run or satellite cloud field often sees the change first.
Week-ahead forecast
A planning view of the coming days for O&M, offtakers and open-access buyers. The day-ahead file is the schedule that is submitted.
Hybrid and Battery Plants
Hybrid plants pair solar with wind, and a battery can shift energy across blocks or hold a margin near the schedule. Settlement looks at the point of interconnection, so the forecast is that combined output.
Each resource, then the meter
Solar, wind and storage are forecast on their own. The schedule is their combined output at the SLDC meter.
Battery limits stay in the forecast
State of charge, power limits and your dispatch rule. The battery controller stays in charge of the battery.
Weather versus a storage decision
Each update shows what the weather did and what a storage decision did.
A margin against the band
Where a small storage block is used to stay nearer the schedule, it gets a generation shape to plan against.
Data We Use
SCADA, inverter data, weather and satellite irradiance are the usual inputs, and most plants already have them. Capacity, orientation and inverter limits keep solar generation forecasting inside what the plant can produce. A maintenance plan you share stays out of the error score.
SCADA and the plant historian
Availability, curtailment, breaker status, and the meter the schedule is judged against.
Inverter data
DC and AC power, clipping and trips. These series explain gaps that weather alone cannot.
Weather stations and weather models
On-site irradiance and temperature where the sensors are healthy, plus weather-model runs for day-ahead and week-ahead.
Satellite irradiance
A second view of irradiance when the pyranometer is missing or soiled, and cloud fields for the intraday update.
The model is fitted to historical generation. With no usable history, we say so before a pilot. The same series support solar plant performance analytics after the day, and AI solar monitoring on the live plant.
Forecast Delivery: API, Dashboard and Scheduling Files
Delivery follows the desk you already run: a solar forecasting API, scheduling files for the QCA and the SLDC, and a solar forecasting dashboard for the people watching the day.
Solar forecasting API
The latest forecast, revision and confidence band, for a scheduling desk, a QCA platform or your own store.
Scheduling files for the QCA and SLDC
The same time blocks and plant identifiers your QCA already submits to the SLDC.
Solar forecasting dashboard
Forecast, confidence band, actual generation, revision history, and whether the schedule sits inside the deviation band.
Revision alerts
A note when a revision is large enough to act on, and when the revision window is closing.
EPC and O&M partners can take the same solar forecasting tool white-label. The partnership page sets out how that engagement works.
Accuracy Reporting and Benchmarks
Solar generation forecasting has no single accuracy percentage that travels from one plant to another. Error depends on climate, data, horizon and the score you use. The pilot scores your plant. Trips, curtailment and soiling stay with performance analytics. A portfolio view compares plants on the same method.
Error by horizon
Week-ahead, day-ahead and intraday, scored on your time blocks.
Error by weather type
Clear days and fast cloud kept apart, so one number does not hide the other.
Time blocks inside the band
The share of blocks in which generation stayed inside the deviation band you operate under.
A simple baseline beside the model
Persistence or a clear-sky shape, so you can see whether the model is earning its place.
Who It's For
Solar generation forecasting is for the organisations that file a schedule, or that file one on behalf of a generator.
Independent power producers
IPPs that schedule solar, wind or hybrid plants and carry deviation settlement on the energy they inject.
QCAs, as a data-science partner
Agencies that already file schedules and want forecasting behind that filing, on the SLDC format you use today.
C&I and open access
Factories and open-access consumers whose solar or hybrid supply is scheduled against contracted energy. Unscheduled rooftop plants usually fit performance analytics better.
EPC and O&M, white-label
Offer the solar forecasting tool under your own brand, beside performance analytics and AI solar monitoring, so a client sees one partner. See the partnership page for models.
Pilot Process
A free 30-day forecast accuracy pilot on one plant shows the error on your data before any production agreement. The score is the result. No percentage is promised up front.
History
Share generation history, plant capacity and the schedule file you use today.
Fit
We fit a first model and confirm the file your QCA would submit.
30 live days
Day-ahead and intraday forecasts run on that plant. Each revision is kept.
Accuracy report
Error by horizon and weather type, beside a simple baseline.
Decide
Continue, add plants, or stop. The pilot starts without a production contract.
Results
Every plant is different, so the pilot report is the result that matters. Published figures wait until a client approves them.
[client result: forecast error on the pilot plant]
[client result: share of time blocks inside the DSM band]
[client result: revision lead time used in intraday updates]
[client result: schedules delivered to the QCA per day]
Results will be published as case studies with client approval.
Frequently asked questions
Common questions about solar generation forecasting accuracy, plant data, QCAs, the 30-day pilot, and API integration.
How accurate is AI solar forecasting?
It depends on the plant, the weather, the horizon and the data. A clear day is easier than fast cloud, and an intraday revision is usually closer than the day-ahead file. A pilot measures error on your plant, by horizon and weather type, next to a simple baseline. We do not quote one accuracy percentage.
What data do you need?
Generation history from SCADA, the inverter portal or the injection meter, plant capacity and layout, and any weather station you trust. Satellite irradiance and weather models cover a weak local sensor. Share outage plans so a known shutdown stays out of the error. A few months can start a pilot. Twelve months shows the seasons. Thin history is flagged before the clock starts.
Can you work with our existing QCA?
Yes. Forecasts and scheduling files follow the shape your QCA already submits to the SLDC, or go by API into the tools that QCA uses. The QCA stays the party that files.
How long does a pilot take?
The scored window is 30 days of live day-ahead and intraday forecasts. Setup before that covers data access and the schedule format, and depends on how the history is shared.
How does the API and integration work?
The solar forecasting API sends each revision to your scheduler, data lake or QCA platform, and the same revision can go out as the scheduling file you already send. The dashboard is for the people watching the day. The pilot scores that file.
Start a Free 30-Day Forecast Accuracy Pilot
Share plant history and the schedule format you use. We issue day-ahead and intraday forecasts for 30 days and report the error on your time blocks.
Part of Energy and Utilities. EPC or O&M company? See the partner program.